There's nothing wrong with betting on Josh Allen to win MVP or the Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl. But for those with a greater appetite for risk, certain long shot plays can be worth the reward.
The latest: Brock Bowers is coming off a legendary rookie season and now has a two-time Pro Bowler quarterback and Hall of Fame head coach ready to help him out. An offensive player of the year award isn't out of the question, and neither are our two MVP award picks with odds north of 35-to-1.
Check out our staff's top NFL long shot predictions for the 2025 season.
BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
NFL long shot picks
Brock Bowers to win OPOY (+6,000): In case you're curious: No tight end has ever won OPOY in its 53-year run as an award.
That's obviously part of what makes this a long shot, since Bowers would have to break new ground to get it done. But the second-year tight end wasn't shy about setting precedent in other ways during the 2024 season:
- Most receptions by a rookie (112)
- Most receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,194)
Today's tight ends are more like wideouts who have to block than linemen who are allowed to catch. And Bowers is the best of the bunch.
He should be the Raiders' No. 1 target again this year, especially after Jakobi Meyers reportedly requested a trade on Aug. 25.
And let's not overlook the quarterback change for the Raiders, as Bowers will now catch passes from Geno Smith. That's a massive upgrade over last year's combination of Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell and Desmond Ridder.
-Jordan Horrobin
NFL OROY prediction
Kaleb Johnson to win OROY (+4,000): Pittsburgh used a third-round pick on the back out of Iowa who had over 1,500 rushing yards and 23 total touchdowns in his junior season.
With Najee Harris out of the picture, Jaylen Warren is expected to begin the season as the starter. But he has never handled a large workload.
In 2024, Warren received 29.9% of the Steelers' carries.
Right out of the gate, this should be a split backfield between Warren and Johnson. The rookie should handle the short-yardage downs while the veteran takes on the third-down role.
But like Harris, Johnson is clearly Mike Tomlin's type. At 6-foot-1 and 224 pounds, he's capable of claiming a bell-cow role.
At 40-to-1, I like the value on a rookie who has the immediate chance to handle goal-line carries.
Aaron Rodgers is expected to be an upgrade over Russell Wilson, and I believe Johnson has the upside of a 1,000-yard rusher with double-digit TDs.
-Spencer Closs
NFL long shot picks: MVP
Bo Nix to win MVP (+6,000): This won't be the flashiest pick for MVP, but at 60-to-1, I think this is at least worth considering.
If we look at Nix's rookie season, he wasn't very good to start.
- 62.8% completion rate, 0 TDs, 4 INTs through three weeks.
Now, take a look at his stats from the final 14 games:
- 67.2% completion rate, 29 TDs, 8 INTs.
Even after a tough start in 2024, Nix finished 12th in passing yards (3,775), sixth in TD passes (29) and eighth in rushing yards among QBs (430).
If he can improve on those stats and the Broncos manage to top their 10-win season to claim the AFC West, Nix should get some serious consideration for this award.
-Closs
Baker Mayfield futures prediction
Mayfield to win MVP (+3,500): My best bet to win the MVP is Joe Burrow, but I think Mayfield will raise some eyebrows this year.
- The seventh-year pro was third in passing yards (4,500) and second in touchdowns (41) last year.
- Mayfield rushed for nearly double his previous career high (378 yards, three TDs) and posted a career-best 106.8 passer rating.
- Per RBSDM.com, Mayfield was fifth in EPA per play and success rate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB did turn the ball over a lot and take plenty of sacks, which cost the Bucs a few games and Mayfield a chance at earning MVP votes.
But if he can tidy up the ball security — a big if — then Mayfield should be top of mind come voting season.
Mike Evans has been a pillar of durability and Chris Godwin should return in early October. On top of that, Emeka Egbuka is poised to become one of the best No. 3 receivers in the league.
-Avery Perri
NFL long shot picks made Aug. 23-26, 2025.
