Two big-name starting pitchers highlight my top MLB prop picks for Wednesday's baseball slate.
Today's MLB props narrative: I have plays on American League starters Kevin Gausman and Jacob deGrom. Gausman has been dynamite and I expect him to continue his second-half surge, while I'm fading deGrom against a division rival.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 17, featuring a prediction on Mookie Betts.
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MLB prop bets
Best bet: Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-130)
The Toronto Blue Jays right-hander is coming off his best start of the season — a two-hit shutout against the Houston Astros.
- It marked the ninth time in 10 second-half starts that Gausman has logged at least six innings.
- He’s made good on this bet in six of those outings, and upped his K rate by more than 3% post-all-star-break.
- Gausman has a sparkling 2.25 ERA over that stretch, holding opponents to a .161 batting average.
Toronto’s bullpen has been worked hard and is shaky, so I’m optimistic Gausman will continue to give the Blue Jays length tonight.
Read why Jordan Horrobin likes Gausman over 18.5 outs
Going deep would obviously help his chances of clearing this line, but the matchup is strong regardless.
The Tampa Bay Rays have struck out more often than all but two teams in the second half. And they have the 10th-highest K rate vs. right-handers.
Key stat: Gausman fanned six Rays when he faced them earlier this season and has cleared this line in each of his last six non-injury-impacted starts vs. Tampa.
Best MLB picks
Betts over 1.5 total bases (+125): Betts' teammate Shohei Ohtani is having a monster end to the season. Don't let that take away from what Betts is doing.
- Betts is batting .373/.400/.729 in September.
- Ohtani is one of only six players with a higher OPS than Betts this month. But Betts is topping him in slugging and total bases, and has as many homers (five).
The Los Angeles Dodgers have another tough matchup against Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo, but he's been especially difficult on left-handed batters.
Betts is averaging 3.1 total bases per game this month, topping this number in 10 of 14 games. Over his last 30, he's recorded two-plus bases 18 times.
deGrom under 17.5 outs (-125): The Texas Rangers righty has failed to clear 17.5 outs in five of his last seven starts. One of those games came against the same Astros he’ll see tonight.
He’s 50/50 against this line on the season and is coming off his longest start of the season.
Texas is still in the wild-card hunt, and I don’t see the club running the oft-injured starter into the ground down the stretch.
The Rangers have gotten good production from their bullpen all year (fifth in ERA this season, third in September), and the club is off tomorrow.
Even if heavier usage is required out of the group today, it will have a day to rest on Thursday before closing out the season with a favourable nine-game stretch.
MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 09/17/2025.
