Eugenio Suarez is flirting with a 50-homer season, and I expect him to get closer on Friday night in Seattle.
Today's MLB HR narrative: Suarez's Mariners host Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels, and this has been an effective matchup for the all-star infielder before. Earlier on, look for Vinnie Pasquantino to stay hot in a park built for lefty power bats.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 12.
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MLB home run picks
Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+360)
Suarez has been my most common HR pick this season, I think. He just seems to always have a better price than the other sluggers in his orbit.
The third baseman is one of just five players this year with 45-plus homers. And though he's been pretty cold at the plate lately, the power is still there.
- Over his past 20 games, Suarez is just 14-for-73 (.192) ... but half of those 14 hits were home runs.
- On the season, Suarez has a sixth-percentile xBA (.218), according to Baseball Savant. But he also has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.0%).
Suarez has an all-or-nothing offensive profile, which is fine for a bet like this. I'm just looking for him to connect once.
Tonight's matchup against Kikuchi is a good one for Suarez, given the pitch mix Kikuchi tends to deploy against right-handed batters.
RHBs are slugging .459 vs. Kikuchi this year, coming to a .336 SLG for LHBs. Kikuchi also has a much higher opponent OPS on the road (.849) than at home (.704).
Kikuchi throws four-seam fastballs and sliders roughly 70% of the time to RHBs. Those happen to be Suarez's favourite pitches to mash.
Suarez is slugging .594 vs. four-seamers and sliders this year, and 27 of his 45 homers have come off those pitches.
Key stat: Suarez is 5-for-12 with three HRs in his career vs. Kikuchi.
Best HR predictions
Pasquantino to hit a home run (+380): According to Baseball Savant's park factors, Citizen Bank Park in Philadelphia has been the most homer-friendly venue for LHBs over the past three seasons (29% more HRs than average).
Enter, Pasquantino.
The 245-pound first baseman has been a slugging machine lately, teeing off for eight homers and a .616 SLG over his past 23 games.
Pasquantino has the platoon advantage tonight against Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler, who's allowing an .877 OPS vs. LHBs this season.
For his part, Pasquantino has a .506 SLG vs. righties.
Buehler ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xERA, xBA and whiff rate. Pasquantino should have a chance to run into one.
MLB home run picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.
