It's not uncommon for bettors to have a process when it comes to wagering on sports. Unfortunately, even the best processes can be rendered useless due to a bout of bad weather. Sometimes overlooked, the weather can make it difficult to determine how to handicap NFL betting.
Of course, sports like the NHL and NBA don't have to worry about bad conditions because they're played in arenas. But at certain NFL venues, the elements can loom large over a game. Wind, snow, and rain can all impact the outcome of an event.
In this guide, we'll explain the ways weather can affect a game, and how to handicap weather in NFL betting.
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How to handicap wind in NFL betting
When betting on the NFL, weather can severely alter a number of markets, but specifically game and team totals. Wind can really derail a team's passing attack, and therefore, cause a lower-scoring game.
There was no better example of this during the 2021 NFL season than the Buffalo Bills' Monday Night Football contest against the New England Patriots. The two AFC East rivals met on Dec. 6 with the top spot in the division on the line. The Bills' home venue, Highmark Stadium, is an open-roof facility which meant the 40-50 mph winds swirling around Buffalo that evening would impact the game.
And indeed it did. New England won the contest 14-10 while attempting just three passes with Mac Jones.
What allowed fans to see the true effect weather had on this game was the following two matchups between these two squads. Across the final two games, which were played in relatively normal conditions, Buffalo outscored New England 80-36 and won both contests.
What this game revealed was that wind's largest impact is its ability to disrupt the passing attack. As mentioned above, Jones only threw three passes while Josh Allen's 145 passing yards were his second-lowest total of the year. "Wind games" could present an opportunity to fade the better passing attack or back the stronger rushing game. Additionally, what this instance taught us about how to handicap weather in NFL betting, is that a game with a lot of gust can be a potential smash spot for a bet to the under.
Rain in NFL betting
In most instances, heavy rain has the same effect on a football game that wind does.
Like the wind, lots of rain can make it difficult for teams to move the ball through the air. Slippery field conditions and a wet ball can make it very hard for wide receivers to get open and catch the football.
A recent example of a game played with extreme rain was the San Francisco 49ers' Week 7 matchup against Washington in 2019. In the contest, the two teams combined for just 196 passing yards and zero offensive touchdowns. San Francisco won the game 9-0 thanks to three Robbie Gould field goals.
The results of this game, and a number of other severe rain games, suggest that like wind games, rain creates an adverse environment for offence. With that in mind, unders are seemingly the play in games where rain will be prevalent.
How to handicap snow in NFL betting
Like rain, snow can be problematic for offensive attacks, but for different reasons. Snow can sometimes create a slick field, but with heavy snowfall, the ground can become tough to trudge through. Additionally, snow can hinder visibility, and therefore make it difficult to accurately pass the ball and see it through for a reception.
A great example of how snow can dampen an offense's outlook is the 'Snowvertime' game played between the Bills and Indianapolis Colts in Week 14 of 2017. After 60 minutes, the game sat tied at 7-7, prompting overtime. With under two minutes remaining, Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy kicked through the snow en route to the game-winning touchdown.
Similar to the other examples listed above, Buffalo's win was a low-scoring affair. McCoy's touchdown sealed a 13-7 win for the Bills. Like the other games, too, the passing attacks were extremely ineffective. The two sides combined for a measly 156 passing yards.
One lesson we can extrapolate from this game is that passing can be extremely difficult in snow. It's hard for wide receivers to get separation, and even tougher for passers to spot the open receiver. Consequently, the better run game may be the lean in these scenarios. Also, like the above instances, this game wound up being a low-scoring affair. The two squads combined for just 20 points, so in cases where there is an extreme amount of snow, the under may be the play.
Warning
One piece of advice that's really worth emphasizing with NFL betting is only let the weather impact your decision making under fairly extreme circumstances. Heavy snow and rainfall is worth adjusting your process for, but light showers or light snow aren't worth overreacting to. Contrarily, once winds reach speeds of greater than 14 mph, there tends to be a quantifiable affect on scoring, according to Safe Betting Sites.
While the weather will certainly impact your NFL bets, there are a number of other factors you should consider. Click here to review our NFL advanced stats and strategy guide.
