Big Ten conference play gets rolling with a key matchup this week between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Indiana Hoosiers.
The pregame narrative: No. 19 Indiana hasn't proven anything yet, but it's a home favourite vs. No. 9 Illinois. The Fighting Illini are off to a commanding start and have been a stellar ATS team since the beginning of last year.
Check out my college football parlay predictions for Week 4, featuring a prop bet on Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck.
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College football predictions: Week 4 parlay
Parlay: Beck 250+ pass yards | Illinois +8.5 | South Alabama -12.5 (+308)
Beck 250+ passing yards (-190): Life is good for Beck down in Miami, where the highly-touted transfer has his Hurricanes off to a 3-0 start.
Beck has thrown for 812 yards and seven touchdowns through three games. He leads the Atlantic Coast Conference in yards per attempt (9.9), completion percentage (79.3%) and passer rating (185.7).
The former Georgia QB was relatively quiet in Week 1 vs. Notre Dame, throwing for 205 yards on 20-of-30 passing.
The Fighting Irish defence is typically tough against the pass, though, and the unit ranked No. 1 in EPA per pass last season (per Game On Paper).
Beck faces the Florida Gators, who rank third in defensive EPA per rush and 69th in EPA per pass.
Expect Beck to cash this milestone for a third straight game.
NCAAF parlay picks
Illinois +8.5 (-182): Indiana haters criticized the team's toothless non-conference schedule last season, and the Hoosiers followed it up with another trio of cupcakes this season.
The Hoosiers were favoured by more than a touchdown in all three games, covering the spread in two of them. Now, IU faces a much tougher task with No. 9 Illinois in town.
How often can you back a top-10 team at a price/spread like this? Illinois is looking to prove last year's 10-win campaign wasn't a fluke, and this is a great opportunity to do that.
Luke Altmyer is back under centre and is off to a crisp start. He threw for 296 yards and three TDs in a 45-19 win at Duke two weeks ago (will Illinois as a -2.5 favourite).
Since the start of last year, Illinois is 12-3-1 ATS (second-best mark in NCAA Division I).
South Alabama -12.5 (-137): The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have gained praise this season for providing free concessions at home games. But on the field, there aren't a lot of nice things to say.
Coastal is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, with its lone win coming against Charleston Southern (FCS). The Chanticleers have scored just 20 total points so far.
The South Alabama Jaguars, meanwhile, put up respectable efforts the past two weeks to cover some sizeable spreads against stiff competition:
- Sept. 6: 33-31 loss vs. Tulane (13-point underdog)
- Sept. 13: 31-15 loss at Auburn (25.5-point underdog)
South Alabama quarterback Bishop Davenport has been excellently efficient, pacing Conference USA in completion percentage (73.4%) and passer rating (175.7).
The Jags have proven they can move the ball, ranking 24th in offensive EPA per play and 64th in success rate so far.
As for the Chanticleers, their offence is 131st in both EPA per play and success rate. I just don't think the visitors will keep up on Saturday night.
College football predictions made at 2:10 p.m. on 09/11/2025.
