The Toronto Blue Jays carry a five-game win streak into Tuesday night's matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The pregame narrative: Toronto outlasted Tampa, 2-1, for an 11-inning win last night. Tonight's game is a pick'em, with Jose Berrios getting the ball for the Jays amid some extended struggles.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 16, including prop picks on Yandy Diaz and Daulton Varsho.
BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays
Best bet: Rays tie no bet — first five innings (-113)
The landscape of the Blue Jays' pitching staff has shifted in the past month, with Shane Bieber stepping up and now Trey Yesavage dazzling in his MLB debut (Sept. 15).
Where does that leave Berrios regarding the impending playoff rotation? Likely on the outside looking in.
It's not like Berrios has earned a more favourable fate. His past 10 starts have been far from desirable:
- 5.10 ERA
- 5.45 FIP
- .294 opponent BA
- 46% hard-hit rate
The reason for caution with this pick is that Toronto is 6-4 on the F5 moneyline during Berrios' rough stretch. So it's quite possible his offence bails him out ... again.
But Ryan Pepiot can prevent that from happening. He's on a tear right now, tossing 5.0 shutout innings in three consecutive starts — with just two hits allowed in that span.
Last time out against Toronto, Pepiot threw 7.0 IP of three-hit, shutout ball.
In limited action against the Jays' active lineup, Pepiot has held the club to a .279 SLG. And his Rays are 2-0-0 on the F5 moneyline vs. Toronto in his outings this year.
Key stat: Berrios has allowed eight earned runs over 11.1 IP vs. Tampa this season. The Blue Jays are 0-2-0 on the F5 moneyline in those games.
Jays prop picks
Diaz over 0.5 runs (+110): Diaz is on a killer run over his past 20 games that makes this prop well worth a buy.
- Since Aug. 21, Diaz has a .395/.459/.623 slash line for the Rays, with 14 runs, 10 extra-base hits and an equal total of walks and strikeouts (nine apiece).
- He is 11-9 vs. his run prop in that span.
Given that I'm low on Berrios, it makes sense to target someone in Tampa's lineup. And Diaz, from the No. 2 spot in the order, should have a great chance to score.
Diaz is 6-for-20 (.300) with a home run, two doubles and a walk against Berrios.
Varsho under 0.5 hits (-103): Varsho has a .912 OPS since the start of August. But he's also hitless in 16 of 31 starts in that span.
It may be difficult to believe that both of those numbers are accurate, but that's the all-or-nothing nature of Varsho's offensive profile.
When he connects, the ball goes a mile; it's just that he often doesn't connect.
So, which side of the coin will we see from Varsho tonight? I prefer to fade him against Pepiot, who — as a reminder — has only allowed two hits in his past 15.0 innings.
Also, left-handed batters have a .188 BA in their career vs. Pepiot.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:17 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.
